A Statistical Analysis of Large Magnitude Earthquakes along the Cascadia Subduction Zone
Faculty Mentor
Richard Orndorff
Presentation Type
Poster
Start Date
4-14-2026 2:00 PM
End Date
4-14-2026 4:00 PM
Location
PUB NCR
Primary Discipline of Presentation
Geosciences
Abstract
The Pacific Northwest is home to the Cascadia Subduction Zone, a 1,000 km-long megathrust fault that stretches from Northern California to Southern Canada. Earthquakes are generated as the results of stresses associated with movement of the Juan de Fuca plate beneath the North American plate, a process known as subduction. Subduction zone megathrust faults are the only faults in the world that can produce earthquakes with magnitudes of 8.5 or greater. For example, in 1700 the Cascadia Subduction Zone produced a devastating 9.0 magnitude earthquake. Geological records also indicate that it has generated 19 great (M8+) earthquakes over the past 10,000 years in approximately 500-year intervals and is expected to rupture again in the future. The goal of this project is to use binomial, geometric, and Poisson analyses to calculate probabilities of major Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquakes in the next 50 years from 126 years of earthquake records from the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program - Earthquake Catalog.
Recommended Citation
Kovpak, Veronica, "A Statistical Analysis of Large Magnitude Earthquakes along the Cascadia Subduction Zone" (2026). 2026 Symposium. 6.
https://dc.ewu.edu/srcw_2026/ps_2026/p3_2026/6
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 International License.
A Statistical Analysis of Large Magnitude Earthquakes along the Cascadia Subduction Zone
PUB NCR
The Pacific Northwest is home to the Cascadia Subduction Zone, a 1,000 km-long megathrust fault that stretches from Northern California to Southern Canada. Earthquakes are generated as the results of stresses associated with movement of the Juan de Fuca plate beneath the North American plate, a process known as subduction. Subduction zone megathrust faults are the only faults in the world that can produce earthquakes with magnitudes of 8.5 or greater. For example, in 1700 the Cascadia Subduction Zone produced a devastating 9.0 magnitude earthquake. Geological records also indicate that it has generated 19 great (M8+) earthquakes over the past 10,000 years in approximately 500-year intervals and is expected to rupture again in the future. The goal of this project is to use binomial, geometric, and Poisson analyses to calculate probabilities of major Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquakes in the next 50 years from 126 years of earthquake records from the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program - Earthquake Catalog.
