A Statistical Analysis of Current and Future Hurricane Activity in the North Indian Ocean
Faculty Mentor
Richard Orndorff
Presentation Type
Poster
Start Date
4-14-2026 2:00 PM
End Date
4-14-2026 4:00 PM
Location
PUB NCR
Primary Discipline of Presentation
Geosciences
Abstract
A hurricane is defined as a tropical storm with winds sustained at 74 mph or greater. I examined major (category 3 and above) hurricane activity over the North Indian Ocean from the years 1972-2019 as reported by Colorado State University Hurricane Forecast Archive. Using RStudio, I conducted a binomial analysis of the CSU dataset to calculate probabilities of zero to ten years with one or more major North Indian Ocean hurricanes in the next decade. I conducted a geometric analysis to determine probabilities associated with waiting periods for the next year with a major hurricane, as well as a Poisson analysis to calculate probabilities of varying rates of major hurricanes per year. These analyses allow us to plan for the most likely major hurricane scenarios in the North Indian Ocean for the decade ahead.
Recommended Citation
Lund, Basil, "A Statistical Analysis of Current and Future Hurricane Activity in the North Indian Ocean" (2026). 2026 Symposium. 17.
https://dc.ewu.edu/srcw_2026/ps_2026/p3_2026/17
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 International License.
A Statistical Analysis of Current and Future Hurricane Activity in the North Indian Ocean
PUB NCR
A hurricane is defined as a tropical storm with winds sustained at 74 mph or greater. I examined major (category 3 and above) hurricane activity over the North Indian Ocean from the years 1972-2019 as reported by Colorado State University Hurricane Forecast Archive. Using RStudio, I conducted a binomial analysis of the CSU dataset to calculate probabilities of zero to ten years with one or more major North Indian Ocean hurricanes in the next decade. I conducted a geometric analysis to determine probabilities associated with waiting periods for the next year with a major hurricane, as well as a Poisson analysis to calculate probabilities of varying rates of major hurricanes per year. These analyses allow us to plan for the most likely major hurricane scenarios in the North Indian Ocean for the decade ahead.
