A Statistical Analysis of Alaskan Earthquakes
Faculty Mentor
Richard Orndorff
Presentation Type
Poster
Start Date
4-14-2026 2:00 PM
End Date
4-14-2026 4:00 PM
Location
PUB NCR
Primary Discipline of Presentation
Geosciences
Abstract
The southwestern part of Alaska that is home to the Alaska–Aleutian Megathrust, Fairweather Fault, and the Denali Fault is one of the most seismically active areas in the world due to the underlying active convergent plate tectonic boundary. This region generated the 1964 earthquake that is the second-largest earthquake in documented history. Analyzing historical seismicity is essential for understanding present-day activity as well as assessing potential future hazards. Using earthquake records from the 1980s through 2026, we apply Poisson, Binomial, and Geometric statistical models to evaluate the probabilities of future significant seismic events. This statistical approach provides a quantitative framework for assessing regional seismic risk and contributes to a deeper understanding of the tectonic processes governing Alaska’s earthquake activity. Understanding the likelihood of future earthquakes is integral to emergency preparedness and planning.
Recommended Citation
Slanga, Emersen and Greenamyer, Diana, "A Statistical Analysis of Alaskan Earthquakes" (2026). 2026 Symposium. 5.
https://dc.ewu.edu/srcw_2026/ps_2026/p3_2026/5
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 International License.
A Statistical Analysis of Alaskan Earthquakes
PUB NCR
The southwestern part of Alaska that is home to the Alaska–Aleutian Megathrust, Fairweather Fault, and the Denali Fault is one of the most seismically active areas in the world due to the underlying active convergent plate tectonic boundary. This region generated the 1964 earthquake that is the second-largest earthquake in documented history. Analyzing historical seismicity is essential for understanding present-day activity as well as assessing potential future hazards. Using earthquake records from the 1980s through 2026, we apply Poisson, Binomial, and Geometric statistical models to evaluate the probabilities of future significant seismic events. This statistical approach provides a quantitative framework for assessing regional seismic risk and contributes to a deeper understanding of the tectonic processes governing Alaska’s earthquake activity. Understanding the likelihood of future earthquakes is integral to emergency preparedness and planning.
