A Statistical Analysis of Major Hurricanes in the South Indian Ocean
Faculty Mentor
Richard Orndorff
Presentation Type
Poster
Start Date
4-14-2026 2:00 PM
End Date
4-14-2026 4:00 PM
Location
PUB NCR
Primary Discipline of Presentation
Geosciences
Abstract
This study examined hurricane data from the South Indian Ocean over a 40-year period provided by the Colorado State University Hurricane Archive. Hurricanes, also known as tropical cyclones, are powerful low-pressure storm systems that form over low-latitude oceans with sustained wind speeds exceeding 74 mph. Major hurricanes exhibit sustained wind speeds over 111 mph. We applied binomial, geometric, and Poisson analyses to (a) determine probabilities with varying number of years with 4 or more major hurricanes in the next decade, (b) probabilities of varying waiting periods before experiencing a year with 4 of more major hurricanes, and (c) probabilities associated with differing rates of major hurricanes per year. This study is important because it helps countries plan and mitigate future natural disasters.
Recommended Citation
Shirley, Holly and Richards, Jazmine, "A Statistical Analysis of Major Hurricanes in the South Indian Ocean" (2026). 2026 Symposium. 19.
https://dc.ewu.edu/srcw_2026/ps_2026/p3_2026/19
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 International License.
A Statistical Analysis of Major Hurricanes in the South Indian Ocean
PUB NCR
This study examined hurricane data from the South Indian Ocean over a 40-year period provided by the Colorado State University Hurricane Archive. Hurricanes, also known as tropical cyclones, are powerful low-pressure storm systems that form over low-latitude oceans with sustained wind speeds exceeding 74 mph. Major hurricanes exhibit sustained wind speeds over 111 mph. We applied binomial, geometric, and Poisson analyses to (a) determine probabilities with varying number of years with 4 or more major hurricanes in the next decade, (b) probabilities of varying waiting periods before experiencing a year with 4 of more major hurricanes, and (c) probabilities associated with differing rates of major hurricanes per year. This study is important because it helps countries plan and mitigate future natural disasters.
