A Statistical Analysis of Cascade Range Eruptions
Faculty Mentor
Richard Orndorff
Presentation Type
Poster
Start Date
4-14-2026 9:00 AM
End Date
4-14-2026 11:00 AM
Location
PUB NCR
Primary Discipline of Presentation
Geosciences
Abstract
The Cascade Range in the Pacific Northwest formed by volcanism associated with subduction of the Juan de Fuca Plate beneath the North American Plate. Several volcanoes within the range remain active and pose potential hazards to surrounding communities. Volcanic eruptions are classified using the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI), a logarithmic scale that describes eruption magnitude based on erupted volume and height. Cascade eruption records from 1625 to 2025 were obtained from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. I used Binomial, Geometric, and Poisson analyses to determine (a) probabilities of eruptions occurring within future time intervals of 10, 20, and 30 years, (b) probabilities of varying waiting times before the next eruption, and (c) probabilities of varying eruption rates over time. These probabilities provide a foundation for understanding long-term eruption patterns and provide a basis for hazard assessment in the Cascade Range.
Recommended Citation
Herzog, Kye, "A Statistical Analysis of Cascade Range Eruptions" (2026). 2026 Symposium. 20.
https://dc.ewu.edu/srcw_2026/ps_2026/p1_2026/20
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 International License.
A Statistical Analysis of Cascade Range Eruptions
PUB NCR
The Cascade Range in the Pacific Northwest formed by volcanism associated with subduction of the Juan de Fuca Plate beneath the North American Plate. Several volcanoes within the range remain active and pose potential hazards to surrounding communities. Volcanic eruptions are classified using the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI), a logarithmic scale that describes eruption magnitude based on erupted volume and height. Cascade eruption records from 1625 to 2025 were obtained from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. I used Binomial, Geometric, and Poisson analyses to determine (a) probabilities of eruptions occurring within future time intervals of 10, 20, and 30 years, (b) probabilities of varying waiting times before the next eruption, and (c) probabilities of varying eruption rates over time. These probabilities provide a foundation for understanding long-term eruption patterns and provide a basis for hazard assessment in the Cascade Range.
