A Statistical Analysis of Future Probabilities for North Atlantic Hurricanes
Faculty Mentor
Richard Orndorff
Presentation Type
Poster
Start Date
4-14-2026 9:00 AM
End Date
4-14-2026 11:00 AM
Location
PUB NCR
Primary Discipline of Presentation
Geosciences
Abstract
A hurricane is a cyclonic storm with sustained wind speeds of 74 miles per hour. They form in low pressure areas in warm ocean water and travel in a westerly direction. A major hurricane is classified by sustained wind speeds of over 111 miles per hour, or a 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The North Atlantic Ocean has a well documented history of hurricanes. We use binomial and geometric distributions to analyze the probability of 3 or more major hurricanes occurring in the North Atlantic in the next 10 years from 171 years of historical data. The geometric distribution is used to assign probabilities to waiting time until the next year with 3 or more major hurricanes, and the binomial distribution is used to calculate probabilities of number of years with 3 or more major hurricanes in the next decade. While improbable things do occur, binomial and geometric probabilities allow us to base emergency planning and preparedness on the most likely future scenarios.
Recommended Citation
Andersen, Damon; Weaver, Katie; and Phillips, Bryon, "A Statistical Analysis of Future Probabilities for North Atlantic Hurricanes" (2026). 2026 Symposium. 17.
https://dc.ewu.edu/srcw_2026/ps_2026/p1_2026/17
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 International License.
A Statistical Analysis of Future Probabilities for North Atlantic Hurricanes
PUB NCR
A hurricane is a cyclonic storm with sustained wind speeds of 74 miles per hour. They form in low pressure areas in warm ocean water and travel in a westerly direction. A major hurricane is classified by sustained wind speeds of over 111 miles per hour, or a 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The North Atlantic Ocean has a well documented history of hurricanes. We use binomial and geometric distributions to analyze the probability of 3 or more major hurricanes occurring in the North Atlantic in the next 10 years from 171 years of historical data. The geometric distribution is used to assign probabilities to waiting time until the next year with 3 or more major hurricanes, and the binomial distribution is used to calculate probabilities of number of years with 3 or more major hurricanes in the next decade. While improbable things do occur, binomial and geometric probabilities allow us to base emergency planning and preparedness on the most likely future scenarios.
