Assessing the Predictive Capabilities of Binomial Probabilities for Major Hurricanes in the North Atlantic
Faculty Mentor
Richard Orndorff
Presentation Type
Poster
Start Date
4-14-2026 11:30 AM
End Date
4-14-2026 1:30 PM
Location
PUB NCR
Primary Discipline of Presentation
Geosciences
Abstract
A hurricane is a cyclonic storm that forms over low latitude oceans with maximum sustained wind speeds of 119 kilometers per hour (km/hr) or greater. A major hurricane has a maximum sustained wind speed of 178 km/hr or greater. The objective of this analysis is to determine the binomial probabilities of observing differing numbers of years with 4 or more major hurricanes in a future period while varying the length of the preceding observational period. Using the North Atlantic hurricane record from 1851 to 2019, I analyze the effect of using 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 and 100 years of observational data to calculate the base probabilities. I then compare the calculated binomial probabilities to actual subsequent hurricanes and determine which number of preceding years of data is most predictive. The results of this study may be useful in determining how many years of observed North Atlantic hurricane data should be used to obtain future hurricane probabilities from a binomial analysis for emergency management and planning.
Recommended Citation
Roose, Robin, "Assessing the Predictive Capabilities of Binomial Probabilities for Major Hurricanes in the North Atlantic" (2026). 2026 Symposium. 50.
https://dc.ewu.edu/srcw_2026/ps_2026/p2_2026/50
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 International License.
Assessing the Predictive Capabilities of Binomial Probabilities for Major Hurricanes in the North Atlantic
PUB NCR
A hurricane is a cyclonic storm that forms over low latitude oceans with maximum sustained wind speeds of 119 kilometers per hour (km/hr) or greater. A major hurricane has a maximum sustained wind speed of 178 km/hr or greater. The objective of this analysis is to determine the binomial probabilities of observing differing numbers of years with 4 or more major hurricanes in a future period while varying the length of the preceding observational period. Using the North Atlantic hurricane record from 1851 to 2019, I analyze the effect of using 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 and 100 years of observational data to calculate the base probabilities. I then compare the calculated binomial probabilities to actual subsequent hurricanes and determine which number of preceding years of data is most predictive. The results of this study may be useful in determining how many years of observed North Atlantic hurricane data should be used to obtain future hurricane probabilities from a binomial analysis for emergency management and planning.
