A Statistical Analysis of Eastern North Pacific Hurricanes
Faculty Mentor
Richard Orndorff
Presentation Type
Poster
Start Date
4-14-2026 11:30 AM
End Date
4-14-2026 1:30 PM
Location
PUB NCR
Primary Discipline of Presentation
Geosciences
Abstract
Hurricanes are tropical cyclones that have sustained winds greater than 74 mph. They form at low latitudes and can last from days to months. Major hurricanes are Category 3 and above and feature wind speeds in excess of 111 mph and are extremely destructive, causing millions of dollars in property damage every year. I conduct Binomial, Geometric and Poisson analyses of 49 years of North Pacific hurricane data to calculate (a) probabilities associated with varying numbers of years with 4 or more major hurricanes in the next decade, (b) probabilities associated with time until the next year with 4 or more major hurricanes, and (c) probabilities associated with varying rates of major hurricanes per year. This information is vital to better understand hurricane risks to human activities in the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.
Recommended Citation
Ricking-halderman, Gabriel, "A Statistical Analysis of Eastern North Pacific Hurricanes" (2026). 2026 Symposium. 21.
https://dc.ewu.edu/srcw_2026/ps_2026/p2_2026/21
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 International License.
A Statistical Analysis of Eastern North Pacific Hurricanes
PUB NCR
Hurricanes are tropical cyclones that have sustained winds greater than 74 mph. They form at low latitudes and can last from days to months. Major hurricanes are Category 3 and above and feature wind speeds in excess of 111 mph and are extremely destructive, causing millions of dollars in property damage every year. I conduct Binomial, Geometric and Poisson analyses of 49 years of North Pacific hurricane data to calculate (a) probabilities associated with varying numbers of years with 4 or more major hurricanes in the next decade, (b) probabilities associated with time until the next year with 4 or more major hurricanes, and (c) probabilities associated with varying rates of major hurricanes per year. This information is vital to better understand hurricane risks to human activities in the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.
