Statistical Analysis of Kīlauea, Hawaii Volcanic Eruptions
Faculty Mentor
Richard Orndorff
Presentation Type
Poster
Start Date
4-14-2026 11:30 AM
End Date
4-14-2026 1:30 PM
Location
PUB NCR
Primary Discipline of Presentation
Geosciences
Abstract
The Hawaiian Islands form a chain in the Pacific Ocean. They resulted from the northwest movement of the Pacific plate over the Hawaiian hotspot. As the plate moved, basaltic volcanic eruptions created shield volcanoes and seamounts. These landforms remain as evidence of past eruptions. Most volcanoes in the northwestern region are dormant or extinct. Kīlauea, located on the main island, is an active volcano that erupts periodically. People live on these islands, and major lava flows can be destructive. We use the Poisson and geometric distributions to calculate probabilities for future eruptions and the area of the lava surface. We also use the binomial distribution to analyze eruptions lasting longer than a month, the number generating a surface area greater than 10 km2, and the probability of a summit eruption.
Recommended Citation
Crossley, Andrew and Meier-Grolman, Cadence, "Statistical Analysis of Kīlauea, Hawaii Volcanic Eruptions" (2026). 2026 Symposium. 1.
https://dc.ewu.edu/srcw_2026/ps_2026/p2_2026/1
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 International License.
Statistical Analysis of Kīlauea, Hawaii Volcanic Eruptions
PUB NCR
The Hawaiian Islands form a chain in the Pacific Ocean. They resulted from the northwest movement of the Pacific plate over the Hawaiian hotspot. As the plate moved, basaltic volcanic eruptions created shield volcanoes and seamounts. These landforms remain as evidence of past eruptions. Most volcanoes in the northwestern region are dormant or extinct. Kīlauea, located on the main island, is an active volcano that erupts periodically. People live on these islands, and major lava flows can be destructive. We use the Poisson and geometric distributions to calculate probabilities for future eruptions and the area of the lava surface. We also use the binomial distribution to analyze eruptions lasting longer than a month, the number generating a surface area greater than 10 km2, and the probability of a summit eruption.
