Statistical Analysis of Major Tropical Cyclones in the South Pacific
Faculty Mentor
Richard Orndorff
Presentation Type
Poster
Start Date
4-14-2026 9:00 AM
End Date
4-14-2026 11:00 AM
Location
PUB NCR
Primary Discipline of Presentation
Geosciences
Abstract
Tropical cyclones are intense low pressure cells that feature wind speeds in excess of 74 mph. Tropical cyclone is the name given to these storms in the South Pacific; they are referred to as hurricanes or typhoons elsewhere. Major cyclones (equivalent to category 3 or higher hurricanes) exhibit wind speeds above 111 mph. I used R Studio to analyze data obtained from the Colorado State University global hurricane archive for the South Pacific Ocean from 1980 to 2019. I used Binomial, Geometric, and Poisson analyses to determine: (a) probabilities of varying numbers of years with 2 or more major cyclones in the next decade, (b) probabilities associated with waiting periods before experiencing the next year with 2 or more major cyclones, and (c) probabilities of varying rates of major South Pacific cyclones per year. These probabilities are useful for understanding and planning for the most likely major cyclonic storm scenarios in the South Pacific Ocean.
Recommended Citation
Haynes, Kate, "Statistical Analysis of Major Tropical Cyclones in the South Pacific" (2026). 2026 Symposium. 19.
https://dc.ewu.edu/srcw_2026/ps_2026/p1_2026/19
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 International License.
Statistical Analysis of Major Tropical Cyclones in the South Pacific
PUB NCR
Tropical cyclones are intense low pressure cells that feature wind speeds in excess of 74 mph. Tropical cyclone is the name given to these storms in the South Pacific; they are referred to as hurricanes or typhoons elsewhere. Major cyclones (equivalent to category 3 or higher hurricanes) exhibit wind speeds above 111 mph. I used R Studio to analyze data obtained from the Colorado State University global hurricane archive for the South Pacific Ocean from 1980 to 2019. I used Binomial, Geometric, and Poisson analyses to determine: (a) probabilities of varying numbers of years with 2 or more major cyclones in the next decade, (b) probabilities associated with waiting periods before experiencing the next year with 2 or more major cyclones, and (c) probabilities of varying rates of major South Pacific cyclones per year. These probabilities are useful for understanding and planning for the most likely major cyclonic storm scenarios in the South Pacific Ocean.
