Binomial Analysis of Major North Atlantic Hurricanes
Faculty Mentor
Richard Orndorff
Presentation Type
Poster
Start Date
5-7-2025 11:30 AM
End Date
5-7-2025 1:30 PM
Location
PUB NCR
Primary Discipline of Presentation
Geosciences
Abstract
Hurricanes are tropical cyclones (rotating low pressure cells) with sustained wind speeds in excess of 74 mph. They are highly destructive storms. We analyzed a dataset that included 169 years of hurricane data from the North Atlantic Ocean (NA). We looked at all hurricanes and major hurricanes (Category 3 and larger) to identify long-term trends. Based on the record, there is an identifiable trend showing an increase in the frequency of all hurricanes over time as well as an increase in frequency of major hurricanes over time. We used a binomial analysis to determine the probability of number of years with 4 or more major hurricanes in the next decade based on (a) the entire length of record and (b) the last 20 years of record. This analysis shows that the increased frequency of major hurricanes during recent years strongly influences these probabilities.
Recommended Citation
Bialozor, Mattie Elise, "Binomial Analysis of Major North Atlantic Hurricanes" (2025). 2025 Symposium. 14.
https://dc.ewu.edu/srcw_2025/ps_2025/p2_2025/14
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 International License.
Binomial Analysis of Major North Atlantic Hurricanes
PUB NCR
Hurricanes are tropical cyclones (rotating low pressure cells) with sustained wind speeds in excess of 74 mph. They are highly destructive storms. We analyzed a dataset that included 169 years of hurricane data from the North Atlantic Ocean (NA). We looked at all hurricanes and major hurricanes (Category 3 and larger) to identify long-term trends. Based on the record, there is an identifiable trend showing an increase in the frequency of all hurricanes over time as well as an increase in frequency of major hurricanes over time. We used a binomial analysis to determine the probability of number of years with 4 or more major hurricanes in the next decade based on (a) the entire length of record and (b) the last 20 years of record. This analysis shows that the increased frequency of major hurricanes during recent years strongly influences these probabilities.
