Analysis of Eruptions from the Cascade Volcanoes and Probability of the Next Mt St. Helens Eruption
Faculty Mentor
Richard Orndorff
Presentation Type
Poster
Start Date
May 2025
End Date
May 2025
Location
PUB NCR
Primary Discipline of Presentation
Geosciences
Abstract
The Cascade Volcanic Range, particularly Mount St. Helens, has been a focal point for volcanic research due to its frequent and explosive eruptions over the past 4,000 years. The 1980 eruption provided critical insights that significantly improved volcanic monitoring techniques and eruption forecasting. Today, geostatistical methods play a crucial role in analyzing eruption frequency data and integrating statistical models to identify eruption patterns and estimate probabilities for future events. Advancements in monitoring technology, including borehole tiltmeters, strainmeters, and deformation sensors, have further enhanced early warning systems. While predicting exact eruption dates remains challenging, the combination of modern monitoring tools and statistical analysis improves the ability to detect precursor signals, strengthening public safety measures. Additionally, continued support from programs such as the Volcano Disaster Assistance Program and data from volcanic observatories have reinforced forecasting efforts. Our results indicate that the highest probability of the next eruption occurs within the next five centuries, though an eruption within the next two centuries remains possible. By integrating historical eruption data with modern statistical techniques, we can better assess the likelihood of future eruptions, ultimately advancing volcanic hazard preparedness and mitigation strategies.
Recommended Citation
Tibbetts, Sophia and Nelson, Abe, "Analysis of Eruptions from the Cascade Volcanoes and Probability of the Next Mt St. Helens Eruption" (2025). 2025 Symposium. 8.
https://dc.ewu.edu/srcw_2025/ps_2025/p1_2025/8
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 International License.
Analysis of Eruptions from the Cascade Volcanoes and Probability of the Next Mt St. Helens Eruption
PUB NCR
The Cascade Volcanic Range, particularly Mount St. Helens, has been a focal point for volcanic research due to its frequent and explosive eruptions over the past 4,000 years. The 1980 eruption provided critical insights that significantly improved volcanic monitoring techniques and eruption forecasting. Today, geostatistical methods play a crucial role in analyzing eruption frequency data and integrating statistical models to identify eruption patterns and estimate probabilities for future events. Advancements in monitoring technology, including borehole tiltmeters, strainmeters, and deformation sensors, have further enhanced early warning systems. While predicting exact eruption dates remains challenging, the combination of modern monitoring tools and statistical analysis improves the ability to detect precursor signals, strengthening public safety measures. Additionally, continued support from programs such as the Volcano Disaster Assistance Program and data from volcanic observatories have reinforced forecasting efforts. Our results indicate that the highest probability of the next eruption occurs within the next five centuries, though an eruption within the next two centuries remains possible. By integrating historical eruption data with modern statistical techniques, we can better assess the likelihood of future eruptions, ultimately advancing volcanic hazard preparedness and mitigation strategies.
